In the first to third quarters of 2023, the center of gravity of scrap steel prices will shift downward year-on-year, and the overall trend will fluctuate. It is expected that the fluctuating trend will continue in the fourth quarter, with prices first rising and then falling.
The scrap steel market as a whole will fluctuate within a narrow range from the first to the third quarter of 2023, but the overall price center of gravity has shifted significantly compared with the same period last year. The fourth quarter is coming soon. It is expected that the scrap steel market will continue to fluctuate in the fourth quarter, but the price will first rise and then fall. The high is expected to appear in October. Specifically analyzed from the following aspects.
Steel market: There will be little pressure on the supply side in the fourth quarter, and demand may increase slightly.
From the supply side, building materials production is expected to decline slightly in the fourth quarter, and inventories are at low levels. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, all steel companies will successively implement the crude steel leveling control policy. On the other hand, as steel companies gradually adjust their steel product structure, it is expected that the output of building materials will decline slightly in the fourth quarter. From the perspective of inventory, the current social inventory of construction steel is basically at a low level. As the difficulty of making profits increases this year, it is expected that traders will not be too enthusiastic in purchasing goods in the later period, so the risk of construction steel inventory in the later period is not great. Overall, there was little pressure on the supply side of the building materials market in the fourth quarter.
From a demand perspective, demand for construction steel is expected to increase slightly in the fourth quarter. With the gradual implementation of policies in the fourth quarter, the overall downstream demand is supported to a certain extent. From a monthly perspective, more seasonal effects must be considered. October is still the peak demand season, so starting from late November Initially, with the advent of the heating season, the demand for the entire building materials will gradually decrease, so overall, we expect that the price of rebar (3770, -3.00, -0.08%) will rise to a certain extent in October under the support of supply and demand. If there is space, it is expected that rebar prices will show a downward trend in average prices from November to December, and the overall market may show a volatile market that first rises and then falls.
Post time: Sep-25-2023