Tomorrow’s Steel Price Forecast
From the current point of view, Chengcai is mainly passively following the rise, and the strength is still insufficient. The next step still needs to be the implementation of market production reduction and the recovery of demand. It is expected that there will be no major changes in the spot market in the short term. How will the market go tomorrow, look down…
1. The influencing factors of the steel market are as follows
1. The CCTV Finance and Economics Excavator Index announced that the operating rate of road equipment in July hit a new high during the year
Recently, the “CCTV Finance Excavator Index” jointly created by CCTV Finance, Sany Heavy Industry, and Shugen Internet released relevant data for July 2023. From the perspective of provinces, in July, the operating rate of 7 provinces exceeded 70%.
2. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: Automobile production and sales in July both declined month-on-month
According to the statistical analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in July, under the influence of the high base in the same period last year and the traditional off-season of the auto market, the pace of production and sales slowed down.
3. From January to July, China’s raw coal output was 2.67 billion tons
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in July 2023, China’s raw coal output was 377.542 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%; the cumulative output from January to July was 2,671.823 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%.
2. Spot market
Today’s rebar: stable and strong
The weekly production of rebar continues to decline, the inventory has turned from increasing to decreasing, the apparent consumption has increased, and the fundamentals have improved. However, the current policy-side reduction news has not been confirmed, and follow-up still needs to be observed. It is expected that rebar will run steadily and moderately tomorrow.
Today’s hot roll: up in a narrow range
Recently, stimulated by the news of the flat control of crude steel, the black series has strengthened compared with the previous period, but the pressure on the fundamentals of hot coils still exists, and the price of flat materials is weakly adjusted under the weak reality. Adjustment.
Today’s medium plate: narrow adjustment
At present, the inventory of medium and heavy plates continues to accumulate, the supply-side contradictions increase, and the rebound height of the plate is suppressed. In addition, the flat control and production limit has not yet been implemented, and the high-speed molten iron production at the industrial end continues. It is expected that the medium plate will be weak in a narrow range tomorrow.
Today’s strip steel: stable and upward
The impact of macro expectations on market sentiment has been strengthened, and spot prices have risen steadily. However, the current situation of downstream orders for strip steel has not improved significantly. Most steel mills maintain normal production.
Today’s profile: stable and strong
Stimulated by the rising market and external good news, the price of profiles has started to rise recently, but from the perspective of market demand, steel mills are all cyclical stock replenishment and market speculative demand, and it is expected that the profile will continue to decline tomorrow.
Today’s pipe: the main steady decline
The price of Tangshan 355 strip steel is running weakly, and the shipment situation of the pipe factory is not good. At present, the market sentiment tends to be cautious, the spot price is still supported, and the short-term speculative demand may be released to a certain extent. It is expected that the main pipe will run steadily tomorrow.
3. Raw material market
Today’s billet: temporarily stable operation
The futures market fluctuated higher, driving some resources to follow up transactions, but the actual demand was limited, the transactions were mostly concentrated in the trade speculation link, and the pace of downstream billet mining was still slow. It is expected that the steel billets will temporarily run stably tomorrow.
Today’s iron ore: slightly stronger
Recently, molten iron is still rising, which supports the upward trend of iron ore. However, the short-term smooth control of crude steel has caused disturbances on the supply side, and the upward drive has slowed down. It is expected that iron ore owners will continue to rise steadily tomorrow.
Today’s coke: stable and strong
At present, the arrival situation of coke companies is gradually improving, and the inventory of some coke companies has increased to a reasonable level. The current tight supply and demand of coke has turned into a balance, and the momentum for sharp increases is insufficient. It is expected that coke will rise slightly tomorrow.
Today’s steel scrap: slightly up
Although the level control of crude steel continues to ferment, the scrap used by steel mills has not changed significantly. It is an indisputable fact that the supply and demand of scrap steel are currently weak. Steel scrap went up slightly.
Today’s pig iron: the main steady rise
All pig irons maintain normal production, but the enthusiasm for getting goods downstream has decreased, and the inventory has increased slightly. However, in the short term, the cost side still supports the price of pig iron. It is expected that the pig iron will continue to rise steadily tomorrow.
4. Comprehensive point of view
At present, the market’s implementation of the reduction of crude steel remains to be seen. In the near future, it is only repeated tests on the market that drive the spot price to follow up. The current actual demand is still weak. Although the apparent consumption has picked up, it is still at a low level in the same period in history. In addition, the output of molten iron has returned to a high level.
Post time: Aug-21-2023